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Dr David Dempsey

Contact

Department: Civil and Natural Resources Engineering

Email: david.dempsey@canterbury.ac.nz

Direct Dial: +64 3 3691437

Office:

Language: English

I use physics models and machine learning for my research in volcanoes, earthquakes and groundwater systems.
About
Research / Creative works
Supervision
Projects
Methods & Equipment

Fields of Research

  • Hydrogen Geostorage
  • Carbon sequestration
  • Volcano eruption forecasting
  • Geothermal fields
  • Induced earthquakes

Researcher Summary

My research group tackles some big challenges that arise when managing extreme groundwater systems in a safe and sustainable way.

Steam-driven volcanic eruptions - we use machine learning techniques to identify seismic signals that suggest an imminent eruption from shallow hydrothermal systems. Using this, we have developed a real-time warning system for Whakaari.

Human-triggered earthquakes - we model how fluid injection and extraction in hydrocarbon projects changes stress on faults. By matching the rate of earthquakes in the past, we can predict the future earthquake rate for different operation styles.

Geothermal reservoir imaging - we study the interaction of solar electromagnetic signals with the Earth to understand where, how large and how powerful our geothermal systems are.

Carbon sequestration - we use models to demonstrate safe and efficient ways to pump large amounts of CO2 underground so that it doesn't contribute to climate change.

Subject Area: Disciplines

  • Earth Sciences: Geophysics; Hydrology; Volcanology
  • Engineering and Technology: Modelling; Resource/Environment Engineering

Resources

  • Personal website
  • LinkedIn

Research/Scholarly/Creative Works

Journal Articles
  • Dempsey DE. and Suckale J. (2023) Physics-Based Forecasting of Induced Seismicity at Groningen Gas Field, The Netherlands: Post Hoc Evaluation and Forecast Update. Seismological Research Letters 94(3): 1429-1446. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0220220317.
  • Steinke B., Jolly AD., Carniel R., Dempsey DE. and Cronin SJ. (2023) Identification of Seismo-Volcanic Regimes at Whakaari/White Island (New Zealand) Via Systematic Tuning of an Unsupervised Classifier. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 128(3) http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2022JB026221.
  • Titus KA., Dempsey DE. and Peer RAM. (2023) Carbon negative geothermal: Theoretical efficiency and sequestration potential of geothermal-BECCS energy cycles. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 122 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2022.103813.
  • Yu P., Dempsey D., Rinaldi AP., Calibugan A., Ritz VA. and Archer R. (2023) Association Between Injection and Microseismicity in Geothermal Fields With Multiple Wells: Data-Driven Modeling of Rotokawa, New Zealand, and Húsmúli, Iceland. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 128(4) http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2022JB025952.
  • Ardid A., Dempsey D., Caudron C. and Cronin S. (2022) Seismic precursors to the Whakaari 2019 phreatic eruption are transferable to other eruptions and volcanoes. Nature Communications 13(1) http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29681-y.
  • Banks E., Morgan L., Sai Louie A., Wilson S. and Dempsey D. (2022) Active distributed temperature sensing to assess surface water–groundwater interaction and river loss in braided river systems. Journal of Hydrology 615, Part A http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128667.
  • Dempsey DE., Kempa-Liehr AW., Ardid A., Li A., Orenia S., Singh J., Tyler AJ. and Cronin SJ. (2022) Evaluation of short-term probabilistic eruption forecasting at Whakaari, New Zealand. Bulletin of Volcanology 84(10) http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00445-022-01600-5.
  • Yu P., Dempsey D. and Archer R. (2022) Techno-Economic feasibility of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) with partially bridging Multi-Stage fractures for district heating applications. Energy Conversion and Management 257 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2022.115405.
  • Ardid A., Archer R., Bertrand E., Sepulveda F., Tarits P. and Dempsey D. (2021) Heat Transfer Through the Wairakei-Tauhara Geothermal System Quantified by Multi-Channel Data Modeling. Geophysical Research Letters 48(8) http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092056.
  • Ardid A., Dempsey D., Bertrand E., Sepulveda F., Tarits P., Solon F. and Archer R. (2021) Bayesian magnetotelluric inversion using methylene blue structural priors for imaging shallow conductors in geothermal fields. Geophysics 86(3): E171-E183. http://dx.doi.org/10.1190/geo2020-0226.1.
  • Dempsey D., Eccles JD., Huang J., Jeong S., Nicolin E., Stolte A., Wotherspoon L. and Bradley BA. (2021) Ground motion simulation of hypothetical earthquakes in the upper North Island of New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics 64(4): 570-588. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00288306.2020.1842469.
  • Kelly L., Gualda G., Gravley D. and Dempsey D. (2021) Hydrothermal cooling as a requirement for short storage of silicic magmas. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10506556.1.
  • Kelly LJ., Gualda GAR., Gravley DM. and Dempsey DE. (2021) Hydrothermal Cooling as a Requirement for Short Storage of Silicic Magmas. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems 22(9) http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2021GC009794.
  • Yu P., Dempsey D. and Archer R. (2021) A three-dimensional coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical numerical model with partially bridging multi-stage contact fractures in horizontal-well enhanced geothermal system. International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences 143 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijrmms.2021.104787.
  • Dempsey DE., Cronin SJ., Mei S. and Kempa-Liehr AW. (2020) Automatic precursor recognition and real-time forecasting of sudden explosive volcanic eruptions at Whakaari, New Zealand. Nature Communications 11(1) http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-17375-2.
  • Dempsey D. and Riffault J. (2019) Response of Induced Seismicity to Injection Rate Reduction: Models of Delay, Decay, Quiescence, Recovery, and Oklahoma. Water Resources Research 55(1): 656-681. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2018WR023587.
  • Riffault J., Dempsey D., Karra S. and Archer R. (2018) Microseismicity Cloud Can Be Substantially Larger Than the Associated Stimulated Fracture Volume: The Case of the Paralana Enhanced Geothermal System. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 123(8): 6845-6870. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2017JB015299.
  • Dempsey D. and Suckale J. (2017) Physics-based forecasting of induced seismicity at Groningen gas field, the Netherlands. Geophysical Research Letters 44(15): 7773-7782. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073878.
  • Dempsey D. and Suckale J. (2016) Collective properties of injection-induced earthquake sequences: 1. Model description and directivity bias. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 121(5): 3609-3637. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2015JB012550.
  • Dempsey D., Suckale J. and Huang Y. (2016) Collective properties of injection-induced earthquake sequences: 2. Spatiotemporal evolution and magnitude frequency distributions. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 121(5): 3638-3665. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2015JB012551.
  • Birdsell DT., Rajaram H., Dempsey D. and Viswanathan HS. (2015) Hydraulic fracturing fluid migration in the subsurface: A review and expanded modeling results. Water Resources Research 51(9): 7159-7188. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017810.
  • Dempsey D., Kelkar S., Davatzes N., Hickman S. and Moos D. (2015) Numerical modeling of injection, stress and permeability enhancement during shear stimulation at the Desert Peak Enhanced Geothermal System. International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences 78: 190-206. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijrmms.2015.06.003.
  • Dempsey D., O'Malley D. and Pawar R. (2015) Reducing uncertainty associated with CO2 injection and brine production in heterogeneous formations. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 37: 24-37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2015.03.004.
  • Dempsey D., Kelkar S. and Pawar R. (2014) Passive injection: A strategy for mitigating reservoir pressurization, induced seismicity and brine migration in geologic CO2 storage. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 28: 96-113. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2014.06.002.
  • Dempsey D., Kelkar S., Pawar R., Keating E. and Coblentz D. (2014) Modeling caprock bending stresses and their potential for induced seismicity during CO2 injection. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 22: 223-236. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2014.01.005.
  • Keating E., Newell D., Dempsey D. and Pawar R. (2014) Insights into interconnections between the shallow and deep systems from a natural CO2 reservoir near Springerville, Arizona. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 25: 162-172. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2014.03.009.
  • Dempsey DE., Archer RA., Ellis SM. and Rowland JV. (2013) Hydrological effects of dip-slip fault rupture on a hydrothermal plume. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 118(1): 195-211. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2012JB009395.
  • Dempsey D., Ellis S., Archer R. and Rowland J. (2012) Energetics of normal earthquakes on dip-slip faults. Geology 40(3): 279-282. http://dx.doi.org/10.1130/G32643.1.
  • Dempsey DE., Rowland JV., Zyvoloski GA. and Archer RA. (2012) Modeling the effects of silica deposition and fault rupture on natural geothermal systems. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 117(5) http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2012JB009218.
  • Dempsey DE., Simmons SF., Archer RA. and Rowland JV. (2012) Delineation of catchment zones of geothermal systems in large-scale rifted settings. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 117(10) http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2012JB009515.
  • Dempsey DE., Langhorne PJ., Robinson NJ., Williams MJM., Haskell TG. and Frew RD. (2010) Observation and modeling of platelet ice fabric in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 115(1) http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008JC005264.
Conference Contributions - Published
  • Titus K., Archer R., Peer R. and Dempsey D. (2022) Carbon Negative Geothermal: Financial Analysis for Combined Geothermal, Bioenergy and Carbon Dioxide Removal. In.
  • Titus K., Dempsey D. and Peer R. (2022) Carbon Negative Geothermal: Theoretical Combined Geothermal-BECCS Injection Cycle. In University of Auckland.
  • Ardid A., Archer R., Sepulveda F. and Dempsey D. (2021) Measuring heat flux dynamics through the clay cap in the Wairakei-Tauhara geothermal field. In.
  • Ardid A., Dempsey D., Bertrand T., Sepulveda F., Solon F., Tarits P. and Archer R. (2021) Uncertain Estimation of Clay Cap Boundaries using Magnetotelluric and MeB Data: Application to Wairākei Geothermal Field. In.
  • Dempsey D. and McConnochie C. (2021) Theoretical models of magma ascent through a geothermal borehole. In.
  • Letourneur M., Dempsey D., O'Sullivan J., O'Sullivan M. and Croucher A. (2021) Numerically Stable Computation of the Thermodynamics Properties of Water Using Splines. In.
  • Rivera J. and Dempsey D. (2021) Reservoir Microearthquake Modeling Analysis: a Proof-of-concept Study and Its Application to Injection Fluid-Induced Seismicity. In.
  • Simmons S., Jarvis L., Dempsey D. and Kempa-Liehr AW. (2021) Data Mining on Extremely Long Time-Series. In IEEE International Conference on Data Mining Workshops, ICDMW 2021-December: 1057-1066. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/ICDMW53433.2021.00137.
  • Wallis I., Pye DS., Dempsey D. and Rowland J. (2021) A Users Guide to Leak-off Test Procedures and Interpretation for Geothermal Wells. In.
  • Yu P., Dempsey D. and Archer R. (2021) Heat Extraction Analysis of Multi-Stage Hydraulic Fracturing Doublet Horizontal EGS Wells. In.
  • Yu P., Dempsey D., Calibugan A. and Archer R. (2021) Machine learning investigation of injection-seismicity in Rotokawa geothermal field. In.
  • Ardid A., Dempsey D., Bertrand T. and Archer R. (2020) Uncertain Estimation of Subsurface Temperature Away From the Borehole Using Magnetotelluric Inversions. In.
  • Wallis I., Rowland J., Dempsey D., Allan G., Sidik R., Martikno R., McLean K., Sihotang M., Azis H. and Baroek M. (2020) Approaches to imaging feedzone diversity with case studied from Sumatra, Indonesia and the Taupō Volcanic Zone, New Zealand. In.
  • Dempsey D., Riffault J., Ardid A., Bertrand T. and Archer R. (2019) Toward Magnetotelluric and Microseismic Calibration of Geothermal Reservoir Models. In.
  • Dempsey D., Gravley D. and Rowland J. (2018) Evolution and Eruption of Geothermally Cooled Magma Bodies. In.
  • Letourneur M., Dempsey D., O'Sullivan J., Croucher A. and O'Sullivan M. (2018) Optimising a One Million Block Grid for a TVZ Flow Model. In.
  • Riffault J., Dempsey D., Archer R. and Karra S. (2018) Quantifying EGS Permeability Development Using Induced Seismicity. In.
  • Rivera J. and Dempsey D. (2017) Forward and inverse modelling of geothermal microseismicity using TOUGH2 coupled with an earthquake simulator. In.
  • Wallis I., Rowland J., Cumming W. and Dempsey D. (2017) The subsurface geometry of a natural geothermal reservoir. In.
  • Dempsey D., O'Sullivan J. and Pearson S. (2016) Joint inversion of temperatures in a synthetic geothermal field using MT, clay alteration models and geothermal reservoir simulation. In.
  • Harp D., Lin Y., Glassley W., Dempsey D., Karra S., Person M. and Middleton R. (2016) A Framework for Robust Analysis and Visualization of Geothermal Prospectivity. In.
  • Mattie T. and Dempsey D. (2016) Analysing induced seismicity in geothermal reservoirs: a modification of the Hall Plot. In.
  • Riffault J., Dempsey D., Archer R., Kelkar S. and Karra S. (2016) Understanding Poroelastic Stressing and Induced Seismicity with a Stochastic/Deterministic Model: an Application to an EGS Stimulation at Paralana, South Australia, 2011. In.
  • Riffault J., Dempsey D., Karra S. and Archer R. (2016) Estimation of pressure and permeability enhancement distribution using induced earthquake hypocenter density for the 2011 Paralana EGS stimulation. In.
  • Dempsey D. and Suckale J. (2015) Induced Earthquake Sequences in Geothermal Settings: Data Trends and Modeling Approaches. In.
  • Dempsey D., Kelkar S., Davatzes N. and Hickman S. (2014) Recent advances in thermo-hydro-mechanical modelling of cold water stimulation and triggered earthquakes. In.
  • Dempsey D., Kelkar S., Davatzes N., Hickman S., Moos D. and Zemach E. (2014) Evaluating the Roles of Thermoelastic and Poroelastic Stress Changes in the Desert Peak EGS Stimulation. In.
  • Dempsey D., Clearwater J., Kelkar S. and Wallis I. (2013) Validation of a coupled thermal-hydrological-mechanical model through a comparative study of shear stimulation in two geothermal environments: USA and New Zealand. In.
  • Kelkar S., Dempsey D., Zyvoloski G. and Pogacnik J. (2013) Investigation of mesh sensitivity in coupled thermal-hydrological-mechanical models: examples from Desert Peak, Nevada, USA and Ngatamariki, New Zealand. In.
  • Dempsey D., Rowland J. and Archer R. (2012) Modelling geothermal flow and silica deposition along an active fault. In.
  • Dempsey D., Rowland J., Archer R. and Ellis S. (2011) Modelling geothermal circulation in a “TVZ-like” setting. In.

Student Supervision

Displaying all items.
    Current
  • PhD - Alfaro J: Evaluation of a Synthetic Earthquake Catalog for New Zealand
  • PhD - Cleary C: Role of Heterogeneity in Seawater Intrusion into Groundwater
  • PhD - Sai Louie A: Surface water-groundwater interaction in braided rivers
  • PhD - Titus K: Carbon Negative Geothermal: A Feasibility Study for Aotearoa and Beyond
  • PhD - Wallis I: Permeability in Geothermal Fields from Borehold to Province Scale
  • Completed
  • PhD - Ardid A: Stochastic Modelling of Multi-Channel Data for Imaging the Clay Cap, Temperature Distribution and Heat Output in the Wairakei-Tauhara Geothermal Field
  • PhD - Riffault J: Understanding the Relationship between Hydraulic Properties of Rocks and Induced Seismicity in the Stimulation of an Enhanced Geothermal System
  • PhD - Yu P: Empowering Enhanced Geothermal Systems via Numerical Modelling and Data Science (2022)
  • Masters - Catalinac A: Non-linear relations between acoustic emissions and fluid pressure in saturated and critically-stressed sandstone (2020)
  • Masters - Rivera J: Forward and Inverse Modelling of Induced Seismicity Using TOUGH2 Coupled with an Earthquake Simulator

Future Research

  • Underground hydrogen storage
  • Carbon negative geothermal
  • Transfer machine learning for eruption forecasting

Key Methodologies

  • Machine learning
  • Artificial intelligence
  • Uncertainty analysis
  • Computer modelling
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